Last week, New Mexico reporter/blogger Heath Haussamen had the inside word that allies of Richardson were discouraging potential donors from cutting checks for the Senate candidacy of Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez:
Some of Gov. Bill Richardson's closest supporters have quietly told a handful of his biggest financial backers considering who they should support in the U.S. Senate race to “keep your powder dry for awhile.” […]
Though no Democrat would speak for the record about the governor's words, sources are speculating on three scenarios:
Richardson, though he has repeatedly insisted publicly that he isn't going to run for Senate even if he loses the presidential race, may be quietly leaving the door open. Richardson doesn't want his supporters giving their money or time to a Senate candidate at this crucial stage in the presidential election, when he needs their help. Richardson doesn't want them backing Chávez, the only top-tier Democrat in the Senate race, at a time when Denish is considering the race and Washington insiders and grassroots supporters in New Mexico are trying to get U.S. Rep. Tom Udall to enter the race.
It's no secret that local and national Democrats would prefer an alternative to Chavez — and everything that I've been hearing indicates that strong alternatives are giving the race a hard look. I had assumed that Richardson's advice that donors should “keep their powder dry” was meant to give Lt. Gov. Diane Denish and Rep. Tom Udall some more time to consider (and reconsider) the race. But could Richardson actually be angling to get into the race himself? Mark Murray over at First Read has the scoop:
By the way, NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli — who's covering Richardson filing his paperwork today for the New Hampshire primary — reports that Richardson said he would not accept matching funds “because it's unilateral disarmament.” It's worth noting that not accepting matching funds makes it MUCH easier to transfer one's presidential money into a Senate account. Just some food for thought…
Richardson's presidential campaign coffers haven't exactly been on par with Hillary's or Obama's. (He raised $7 million in the third quarter and had less than that on-hand at the start of the month.) It seems that the extra boost provided by matching funds would be a pretty crucial component of a come-from-behind victory for Richardson's team. And while the move not to accept funds makes perfectly good strategic sense for someone aiming to succeed in the general election, it must be noted that Richardson faces far longer odds of making it there than even John Edwards has today. Could something else be at work here?
If Richardson were to run, the polls suggest it would be a slam dunk for Democrats. Should we hold out hope that Richardson might decide to pursue a Senate bid after his Presidential campaign flames out? Or are we going to end up looking like the poor souls who are still hoping for Al Gore to enter the Presidential race and save all of humanity?
Update (Trent, 10/31):
Chuck Todd, appearing on Tucker last night prior to the debate, offered some predictions about Bill Richardson:
Richardson, though, I think you're going to see Richardson really stop being an aggressive candidate. I think he has got his one eye on that Senate race. he probably at some point is going to end up running for the U.S. Senate, probably is going to want Bill Clinton raising money for him in New Mexico. So Richardson is the guy I'm wondering, will he end up being a helpful surrogate on the stage for Clinton if people stop—start beating up on her too much, where you suddenly see Richardson saying, hey, hey, this isn't what this is all about, and he starts trying to be the nice guy and end up helping Clinton.
Todd sounds particularly prescient considering that many viewed Richardson's debate performance as being particularly protective of Clinton.
I’m glad that this opens up speculation for another candidate to jump in. I can’t wait for us to find out if and who.
A quote from the article worth noting.
Apparently Chavez is having issues with who is on his campaign finance committee. Misinterpretations seems to be the key problem. (I skimmed the article-there may be more to that). Also, some people helping Richardson raise money are on Chavez’s committee, which makes this even more confusing. But…
Chavez has been in for… less than a month and he’s already over $500,000 in pledges. If we want a candidate to go into the primary against him, and have a solid base to fundraise from, they better do it soon. Chavez also has businesses on his side. Making it even harder for us to financially compete against him.
What I’m getting at, is if we’re going to have someone else run for it, get in. Damn.
How much of what Richardson has now would be transferable to a Senate candidacy?
…I just think Bill Richardson has higher aspirations than a low-seniority newbie in the U.S. Senate. He most likely realizes his chances of becoming President at this stage are nil, but he remains a sterling prospect for running mate, and I’d be surprised if he forfeited a chance to win the veepstakes to become the junior Senator of New Mexico. Then again, I would have thought the same about Mark Warner….
Bill Richardson as a candidate for the open NM Senate seat is key to both short term and long term Democratic goals. In the short term: the addition of Bill Richardson will put three states (Virginia, New Hampshire, and New Mexico) into the category of extremely likely pick-ups. This will allow more focus on the remaining Senate races: Three states (Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine) where quality, hard fought campaigns will likely result in wins. Three states (Oregon, Alaska, and Nebraska) where opportunity knocks and with the right set of circumstances we can win. Three states (North Carolina, Kentucky, and Texas) in the South where winning is “icing on the cake”.
Long term goals: (a) Richardson provides a strong voice of reason in the Senate on International Relations as a backstop against the “Fear Inc” approach the Republicans will try again when they re-gain the Presidency. This could prevent the next war. (b) Further capture the expanding Hispanic vote nationwide (Mel Martinez could not take it — what are the Republicans offing the Hispanics these days – bile? venom?) (c) Really help stablize the Senate as a Democratic domain through numerous election cycles. (d) Hopefully another short term item: help extract this nation out of “major combat operations” in the current wars.
all of it i would assume. senators rigged the transfer deck as i recall.
is transferable, but donations to his presidential campaign would count as donations to his Senate campaign. If you gave max contribution, you could not contribute again. I do not see Richardson running, but he would have a financial advantage if he ran.
he probably figured he needed some foreign policy bona fides to round out his resume before trying to run for President in 2016, and he knew he was likelier to get that in the Senate than with another stint as governor (or as VP, where, if Hillary actually gave him anything to do, it would probably be domestic in focus).
Richardson might be banking on winning the Senate seat after his Presidential run flames out, then, if he’s offered the SoS spot, taking that and letting Denish appoint another Dem (or herself) to the Senate seat, and if not, well, a Senate seat is a good consolation prize. Good way to keep all his bases covered.
Richardson and Denish, while certainly good colleauges, are not particularly enamored of each other (was that sufficiently delicate?). I doubt Richardson would screw with Chavez to benefit Denish.
The more I think about it and talk with folks in NM, the more I see a lot of decisions revolving around Richardson’s decision. He does not want to be VP. He does want to be Secretary of State. If he can be confident about having a good shot at it, he’ll stay in the Prez race until the bitter end and if he doesn’t end up in the Administration he stays in his current job. This would be the worst case scenario for Denish, who is ambitious and really wants to be governor.
If he can’t (say, if Hillary begins to lose her edge) I think he jumps into the Senate race. That means Denish takes his spot and runs for governor, screwing Chavez, whom Denish would beat in a gubernatorial primary. The only way Udall gets in is if Richardson actualy TELLS people he’s out of the Senate race AND won’t run for reelection for governor. Then Denish goes for governor and Udall has a free shot at Chavez.
Phew. Gotta love small state politics.
She has serious involvement with commissions at the U.N., including the Commission on Legal Empowerment of the Poor, which is a vital worldwide issue rising in prominence. Just because we don’t see her on the news all the time, doesn’t mean she has been diminished!
I hope he waits as long as possible. We don’t want Pearce and Wilson to get cold feet, withdraw from the Senate race and run for reelection. The open House seats are an additional gift to Democrats.
richardson can win the senate easily, putting denish in a great position to win the guv in NM. the pieces fit together rather nicely.
it’s almost impossible for governor richardson to win the pres and extremely unlikely for him to be veep (a woman and a person of color on the ticket? really?, let’s break one barrier at a time). also the people of new mexico know him well and love him, but the harsh spotlight of a nationasl campaign and national debates will not flatter him and his loose (in every sense) style.
please bill, you’ve run a fine campaign but pres/vp is not the office or the time and US Senate is exactly the office and exactly the right time. it’s one of the the most powerful offices in the world. there are no term limits. and you call the shots.
VP has been a dead end for most, sec of state even more so. powell, rice, albright? where are they now? the office only diminished them.